Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is slightly overvalued and Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. HOG is the closer of the two: -11%, against -175% for WGO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.39; the price of $26.03 is 11% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $10.28; the price of $28.26 is 175% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 46/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | HOG | WGO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $26.03 | $28.26 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.39 | $10.28 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -175% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 46/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $2.7B | $799M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Return on equity | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 0.39 |
| P/E | 16.1x | 20.8x |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 12.1x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 0.7x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | 4.9% |