Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is slightly overvalued and Thor Industries Inc (THO) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. HOG is the closer of the two: -11%, against -13% for THO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.39; the price of $26.03 is 11% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.2% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $65.34; the price of $73.80 is 13% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HOG | THO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $26.03 | $73.80 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.39 | $65.34 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -13% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $2.7B | $3.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Return on equity | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 0.23 |
| P/E | 16.1x | 14.9x |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 15.0x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | 2.9% |