Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is slightly overvalued and Polaris Inc (PII) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. HOG is the closer of the two: -11%, against -836% for PII.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.39; the price of $26.03 is 11% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.8% values the shares at $5.76; the price of $53.97 is 836% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | HOG | PII |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $26.03 | $53.97 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.39 | $5.76 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | -836% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $2.7B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | -3.5% |
| Return on equity | 6.3% | -25.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 2.46 |
| P/E | 16.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 3.7x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | 5.0% |