Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is slightly overvalued and Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) is fairly valued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PATK trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +4%, against -11% for HOG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.39; the price of $26.03 is 11% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $74.07; the price of $71.06 is 4% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HOG | PATK |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $26.03 | $71.06 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.39 | $74.07 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | +4% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $2.7B | $2.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 9.7% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 7.0% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| Return on equity | 6.3% | 13.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 1.46 |
| P/E | 16.1x | 16.9x |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 13.5x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 2.0x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | 2.6% |