Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is slightly overvalued and LCI Industries (LCII) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, LCII trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +35%, against -11% for HOG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.39; the price of $26.03 is 11% above that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $134.53; the price of $87.92 is 35% below that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | HOG | LCII |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $26.03 | $87.92 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.39 | $134.53 |
| Margin of safety | -11% | +35% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 68/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $2.7B | $2.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.0% | 8.1% |
| Operating margin | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| Net margin | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 6.3% | 15.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| P/E | 16.1x | 10.2x |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 9.2x |
| P/B | 0.9x | 1.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% | 5.2% |