Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) is overvalued and Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SFM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +14%, against -31% for GO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (2.7% median margin), capitalised at 7.8% with no growth, values the shares at $8.78; the price of $11.49 is 31% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $79.58; the price of $68.68 is 14% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 81/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | GO | SFM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $11.49 | $68.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $8.78 | $79.58 |
| Margin of safety | -31% | +14% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (8/12) | 81/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $1.1B | $6.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.4% | 6.4% |
| Operating margin | 4.5% | 7.5% |
| Net margin | -8.0% | 5.6% |
| Return on equity | -38.1% | 35.2% |
| Debt to equity | 2.27 | 1.40 |
| P/E | — | 13.2x |
| Forward P/E | 17.2x | 11.5x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 4.3x |