Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) is overvalued and Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NGVC trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +12%, against -31% for GO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (2.7% median margin), capitalised at 7.8% with no growth, values the shares at $8.78; the price of $11.49 is 31% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $34.08; the price of $30.08 is 12% below that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 47/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | GO | NGVC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $11.49 | $30.08 |
| Intrinsic value | $8.78 | $34.08 |
| Margin of safety | -31% | +12% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (8/12) | 47/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $1.1B | $693M |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.4% | 5.1% |
| Operating margin | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | -8.0% | 3.5% |
| Return on equity | -38.1% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 2.27 | 1.35 |
| P/E | — | 14.7x |
| Forward P/E | 17.2x | 13.3x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 2.9x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.7% |