Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) is overvalued and Kroger Co (KR) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. GO is the closer of the two: -31%, against -83% for KR.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Its through-the-cycle earnings (2.7% median margin), capitalised at 7.8% with no growth, values the shares at $8.78; the price of $11.49 is 31% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $31.93; the price of $58.56 is 83% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 43/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | GO | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $11.49 | $58.56 |
| Intrinsic value | $8.78 | $31.93 |
| Margin of safety | -31% | -83% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (8/12) | 43/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $1.1B | $34.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 8.4% | 2.2% |
| Operating margin | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Net margin | -8.0% | 0.7% |
| Return on equity | -38.1% | 14.2% |
| Debt to equity | 2.27 | 4.14 |
| P/E | — | 31.7x |
| Forward P/E | 17.2x | 10.6x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 6.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.6% |