Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) is overvalued and Marsh (MRSH) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ERIE is the closer of the two: -64%, against -75% for MRSH.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 24.8% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $142.88; the price of $234.38 is 64% above that value.
Leak Score 44/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 25.7% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $96.90; the price of $170.01 is 75% above that value.
Leak Score 48/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | ERIE | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $234.38 | $170.01 |
| Intrinsic value | $142.88 | $96.90 |
| Margin of safety | -64% | -75% |
| Leak Score | 44/100 (2/12) | 48/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $10.9B | $81.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Operating margin | 17.9% | 24.3% |
| Net margin | 14.0% | 14.2% |
| Return on equity | 24.8% | 25.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| P/E | 21.4x | 20.8x |
| Forward P/E | — | 14.9x |
| P/B | 4.4x | 5.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% | 2.2% |