Baldwin Insurance Group Inc (BWIN) is overvalued and Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ERIE is the closer of the two: -64%, against -248% for BWIN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value and earnings at sector multiples values the shares at $9.18; the price of $31.95 is 248% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 24.8% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $142.88; the price of $234.38 is 64% above that value.
Leak Score 44/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | BWIN | ERIE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $31.95 | $234.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $9.18 | $142.88 |
| Margin of safety | -248% | -64% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 44/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $4.3B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 44.3% | 9.9% |
| Operating margin | -2.6% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | -4.7% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | -10.7% | 24.8% |
| Debt to equity | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| P/E | — | 21.4x |
| Forward P/E | 12.9x | — |
| P/B | 3.5x | 4.4x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.5% |