Accelerant Holdings (ARX) is overvalued and Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ERIE is the closer of the two: -70%, against -499% for ARX.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Book value and earnings at sector multiples values the shares at $3.31; the price of $19.83 is 499% above that value.
No Leak Score yet
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 24.8% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $142.88; the price of $242.25 is 70% above that value.
Leak Score 67/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | ARX | ERIE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $19.83 | $242.25 |
| Intrinsic value | $3.31 | $142.88 |
| Margin of safety | -499% | -70% |
| Leak Score | — | 67/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $4.3B | $11.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | — | 9.9% |
| Operating margin | 23.4% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | -181.9% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | -380.1% | 24.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| P/E | — | 22.1x |
| Forward P/E | 21.3x | — |
| P/B | 6.0x | 4.6x |
| Dividend yield | — | 2.4% |