Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) is overvalued and Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ERIE is the closer of the two: -64%, against -209% for AJG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Book value at 0.70x, the multiple a 6.7% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $74.47; the price of $230.45 is 209% above that value.
Leak Score 41/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Book value at 2.50x, the multiple a 24.8% return on equity justifies, blended with earnings, values the shares at $142.88; the price of $234.38 is 64% above that value.
Leak Score 44/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | AJG | ERIE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $230.45 | $234.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $74.47 | $142.88 |
| Margin of safety | -209% | -64% |
| Leak Score | 41/100 (8/12) | 44/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $59.1B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.3% | 9.9% |
| Operating margin | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | 10.0% | 14.0% |
| Return on equity | 6.7% | 24.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| P/E | 38.1x | 21.4x |
| Forward P/E | 15.4x | — |
| P/B | 2.5x | 4.4x |
| Dividend yield | 1.2% | 2.5% |