LPX: overvalued.
Figures as of the 2026-09-22 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $10.72; the price of $68.02 is 534% above that value, and 67% of that value comes from beyond year five. The value is recomputed every night after the US close, from the company's own filings with the SEC and the day's closing price.
We call it the buy zone when the price is at least 20% below our estimate of intrinsic value. LPX trades at $68.02 against a value of $10.72, a margin of safety of -534.4%: it is not in the buy zone. A margin of safety is room for our estimate to be wrong, not a forecast.
At $8.58 or lower, which is 20% below our estimate of $10.72. That is 87% under today's price of $68.02, if our estimate does not change. It will: it moves with every annual report.