ARCC: undervalued.
Figures as of the 2026-09-22 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $43.84; the price of $19.36 is 56% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five. The value is recomputed every night after the US close, from the company's own filings with the SEC and the day's closing price.
We call it the buy zone when the price is at least 20% below our estimate of intrinsic value. ARCC trades at $19.36 against a value of $43.84, a margin of safety of +55.8%: it is in the buy zone. A margin of safety is room for our estimate to be wrong, not a forecast.
It already is. The buy zone starts at $35.08, which is 20% below our estimate of $43.84, and ARCC trades at $19.36.