Waste Connections Inc (WCN) is overvalued and Waste Management Inc (WM) is slightly overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WM is the closer of the two: -17%, against -71% for WCN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $91.12; the price of $155.42 is 71% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $177.64; the price of $207.68 is 17% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | WCN | WM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly overvalued |
| Price | $155.42 | $207.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $91.12 | $177.64 |
| Margin of safety | -71% | -17% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $39.2B | $83.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 11.7% | 10.6% |
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 11.1% |
| Return on equity | 13.0% | 29.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.22 | 2.35 |
| P/E | 37.5x | 29.4x |
| Forward P/E | 25.1x | 22.9x |
| P/B | 5.0x | 8.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 1.8% |