United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is slightly undervalued and ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR (ZTO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, ZTO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +60%, against +6% for UPS.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $101.77; the price of $95.87 is 6% below that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 39/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $49.12; the price of $19.84 is 60% below that value, and 78% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | UPS | ZTO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $95.87 | $19.84 |
| Intrinsic value | $101.77 | $49.12 |
| Margin of safety | +6% | +60% |
| Leak Score | 39/100 (8/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $81.6B | $10.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 1.0% | 13.3% |
| Operating margin | 9.3% | 20.2% |
| Net margin | 5.1% | 19.0% |
| Return on equity | 29.7% | 16.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.90 | 0.35 |
| P/E | 17.9x | 10.8x |
| Forward P/E | 11.9x | 8.7x |
| P/B | 5.4x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | 6.8% | 4.1% |