Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) is fairly valued and Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ULTA is the closer of the two: -2%, against -96% for WSM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $541.68; the price of $553.86 is 2% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 67/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 11.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $118.54; the price of $232.69 is 96% above that value, and 68% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 71/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | ULTA | WSM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $553.86 | $232.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $541.68 | $118.54 |
| Margin of safety | -2% | -96% |
| Leak Score | 67/100 (9/12) | 71/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $23.7B | $27.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.0% | 2.9% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 19.2% |
| Net margin | 9.3% | 14.7% |
| Return on equity | 46.1% | 55.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.95 | 0.71 |
| P/E | 20.2x | 23.8x |
| Forward P/E | 17.2x | 22.1x |
| P/B | 9.0x | 12.8x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.3% |