Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) is undervalued and Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -128% for VLO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.78; the price of $7.69 is 44% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.56; the price of $377.14 is 128% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | UGP | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $7.69 | $377.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $13.78 | $165.56 |
| Margin of safety | +44% | -128% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 64/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $8.2B | $108.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.2% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| Net margin | 2.3% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 21.8% | 29.3% |
| Debt to equity | 1.09 | 0.45 |
| P/E | 12.7x | 15.6x |
| Forward P/E | 12.6x | 9.8x |
| P/B | 2.4x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 5.2% | 1.3% |