Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) is slightly overvalued and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TRN is the closer of the two: -16%, against -31% for UNP.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $23.92; the price of $27.82 is 16% above that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $209.54; the price of $274.41 is 31% above that value, and 74% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 51/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | TRN | UNP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $27.82 | $274.41 |
| Intrinsic value | $23.92 | $209.54 |
| Margin of safety | -16% | -31% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 51/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $2.2B | $163.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| Operating margin | 15.2% | 39.9% |
| Net margin | 16.6% | 28.9% |
| Return on equity | 32.4% | 39.7% |
| Debt to equity | 4.57 | 1.51 |
| P/E | 6.7x | 22.2x |
| Forward P/E | 12.5x | 19.4x |
| P/B | 1.9x | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield | 4.5% | 2.0% |