Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) is overvalued and Universal Corp (UVV) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UVV trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +27%, against -61% for TPB.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $37.33; the price of $60.28 is 61% above that value, and 75% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $59.80; the price of $43.48 is 27% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | TPB | UVV |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $60.28 | $43.48 |
| Intrinsic value | $37.33 | $59.80 |
| Margin of safety | -61% | +27% |
| Leak Score | 49/100 (10/12) | 59/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $1.2B | $1.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.7% | 8.1% |
| Operating margin | 16.9% | 6.2% |
| Net margin | 8.8% | 0.7% |
| Return on equity | 13.7% | 1.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| P/E | 25.9x | 58.0x |
| Forward P/E | 31.1x | 11.0x |
| P/B | 2.8x | 0.8x |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | 7.6% |