Toyota Motor Corp ADR (TM) is slightly undervalued and Tesla Inc (TSLA) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +8%, against -1287% for TSLA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $207.90; the price of $192.06 is 8% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.2% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $27.32; the price of $378.90 is 1287% above that value.
Leak Score 48/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | TM | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $192.06 | $378.90 |
| Intrinsic value | $207.90 | $27.32 |
| Margin of safety | +8% | -1287% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (3/12) | 48/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $227.4B | $1.50T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.6% | 24.6% |
| Operating margin | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Net margin | 8.6% | 3.7% |
| Return on equity | 12.1% | 4.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.18 | 0.19 |
| P/E | 8.5x | 352.0x |
| Forward P/E | 8.7x | 164.6x |
| P/B | 1.0x | 17.2x |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | — |