TFI International Inc (TFII) is overvalued and XPO Inc (XPO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TFII is the closer of the two: -58%, against -353% for XPO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $79.24; the price of $125.04 is 58% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 12.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $39.25; the price of $177.67 is 353% above that value, and 66% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | TFII | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $125.04 | $177.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $79.24 | $39.25 |
| Margin of safety | -58% | -353% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 49/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $10.3B | $20.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.8% | -4.4% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 9.8% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| Return on equity | 12.4% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.11 | 2.03 |
| P/E | 30.7x | 52.2x |
| Forward P/E | 15.8x | 27.2x |
| P/B | 3.8x | 10.6x |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | — |