Transalta Corp (TAC) is fairly valued and Vistra Corp (VST) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TAC is the closer of the two: -0%, against -34% for VST.
Values as of the 19 Oct 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $12.97; the price of $13.00 sits right on that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.8% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $111.54; the price of $149.70 is 34% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 12 of 12 signals
| Metric | TAC | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $13.00 | $149.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $12.97 | $111.54 |
| Margin of safety | -0% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 50/100 (10/12) | 45/100 (12/12) |
| Market cap | $4.1B | $50.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 3.3% | 8.9% |
| Operating margin | -1.2% | 10.7% |
| Net margin | -3.3% | 11.5% |
| Return on equity | -1.4% | 43.1% |
| Debt to equity | 2.38 | 3.63 |
| P/E | — | 25.3x |
| Forward P/E | 32.9x | 14.8x |
| P/B | 7.0x | 16.7x |
| Dividend yield | 1.5% | 0.7% |