Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) is overvalued and UGI Corp (UGI) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGI trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +10%, against -178% for SWX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $30.00; the price of $83.49 is 178% above that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $41.00; the price of $36.85 is 10% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 35/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | SWX | UGI |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $83.49 | $36.85 |
| Intrinsic value | $30.00 | $41.00 |
| Margin of safety | -178% | +10% |
| Leak Score | 14/100 (3/12) | 35/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $6.0B | $7.9B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -10.1% | 2.2% |
| Operating margin | 28.7% | 14.5% |
| Net margin | 29.8% | 9.2% |
| Return on equity | 6.6% | 13.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.85 | 1.35 |
| P/E | 11.7x | 12.3x |
| Forward P/E | 16.9x | 11.4x |
| P/B | 1.5x | 1.5x |
| Dividend yield | 3.0% | 4.1% |