Sunoco LP (SUN) is undervalued and Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against +21% for SUN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $92.66; the price of $73.12 is 21% below that value, and 85% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.78; the price of $7.69 is 44% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | SUN | UGP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $73.12 | $7.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $92.66 | $13.78 |
| Margin of safety | +21% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (2/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $15.0B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 18.7% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Return on equity | 14.5% | 21.8% |
| Debt to equity | 1.78 | 1.09 |
| P/E | 16.0x | 12.7x |
| Forward P/E | 8.0x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 1.5x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | 5.5% | 5.2% |