Suncor Energy Inc (SU) is undervalued and ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SU trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +47%, against -24% for XOM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $125.75; the price of $66.94 is 47% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $128.10; the price of $158.71 is 24% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 68/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | SU | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $66.94 | $158.71 |
| Intrinsic value | $125.75 | $128.10 |
| Margin of safety | +47% | -24% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 68/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $78.3B | $652.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Operating margin | 21.9% | 11.3% |
| Net margin | 15.8% | 9.0% |
| Return on equity | 19.4% | 12.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| P/E | 12.3x | 20.4x |
| Forward P/E | 12.3x | 14.7x |
| P/B | 2.3x | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 2.6% |