Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is overvalued and Western Digital Corp (WDC) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WDC is the closer of the two: -34%, against -380% for STX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 13.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.47; the price of $919.84 is 380% above that value, and 61% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
A 9.6x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $347.40; the price of $464.60 is 34% above that value.
Leak Score 58/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | STX | WDC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $919.84 | $464.60 |
| Intrinsic value | $191.47 | $347.40 |
| Margin of safety | -380% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (3/12) | 58/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $209.2B | $167.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 2.7% | -5.3% |
| Operating margin | 34.6% | 35.6% |
| Net margin | 26.1% | 72.0% |
| Return on equity | 371.5% | 131.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.80 | 0.13 |
| P/E | 66.3x | 19.2x |
| Forward P/E | 16.3x | 14.3x |
| P/B | 96.3x | 18.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.3% | 0.1% |