Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) is overvalued and Ternium SA ADR (TX) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TX trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +19%, against -129% for STLD.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 11.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $102.14; the price of $233.99 is 129% above that value, and 69% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.30; the price of $56.43 is 19% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | STLD | TX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $233.99 | $56.43 |
| Intrinsic value | $102.14 | $69.30 |
| Margin of safety | -129% | +19% |
| Leak Score | 45/100 (10/12) | 30/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $33.5B | $11.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 13.6% | 11.9% |
| Operating margin | 10.0% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | 7.8% | 4.4% |
| Return on equity | 17.6% | 5.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| P/E | 21.2x | 15.9x |
| Forward P/E | 11.7x | 7.5x |
| P/B | 3.6x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 4.3% |