Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is overvalued and CVR Partners LP (UAN) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UAN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +66%, against -82% for SMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.88; the price of $52.68 is 82% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $380.69; the price of $128.85 is 66% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 85/100 on 8 of 12 signals
| Metric | SMG | UAN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $52.68 | $128.85 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.88 | $380.69 |
| Margin of safety | -82% | +66% |
| Leak Score | 0/100 (2/12) | 85/100 (8/12) |
| Market cap | $3.1B | $1.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | -3.8% | 11.6% |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | 28.5% |
| Net margin | 2.2% | 23.7% |
| Return on equity | — | 48.3% |
| Debt to equity | — | 1.67 |
| P/E | 46.1x | 8.5x |
| Forward P/E | 10.9x | — |
| P/B | — | 3.9x |
| Dividend yield | 5.1% | 11.2% |