Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is undervalued and Western Digital Corp (WDC) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SMCI trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against -34% for WDC.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 13.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $97.37; the price of $41.54 is 57% below that value, and 64% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 10 of 12 signals
A 9.6x revenue multiple, adjusted for growth and margin, values the shares at $347.40; the price of $464.60 is 34% above that value.
Leak Score 58/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | SMCI | WDC |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $41.54 | $464.60 |
| Intrinsic value | $97.37 | $347.40 |
| Margin of safety | +57% | -34% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (10/12) | 58/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $27.3B | $167.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 61.5% | -5.3% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 35.6% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 72.0% |
| Return on equity | 21.3% | 131.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.64 | 0.13 |
| P/E | 12.6x | 19.2x |
| Forward P/E | 7.8x | 14.3x |
| P/B | 2.7x | 18.9x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.1% |