Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is undervalued and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SMCI trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against -380% for STX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 13.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $97.37; the price of $41.54 is 57% below that value, and 64% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 61/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.47; the price of $919.84 is 380% above that value, and 61% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | SMCI | STX |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $41.54 | $919.84 |
| Intrinsic value | $97.37 | $191.47 |
| Margin of safety | +57% | -380% |
| Leak Score | 61/100 (10/12) | 59/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $27.3B | $209.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 61.5% | 2.7% |
| Operating margin | 7.1% | 34.6% |
| Net margin | 5.6% | 26.1% |
| Return on equity | 21.3% | 371.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.64 | 1.80 |
| P/E | 12.6x | 66.3x |
| Forward P/E | 7.8x | 16.3x |
| P/B | 2.7x | 96.3x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.3% |