Shopify Inc (SHOP) is overvalued and Snowflake Inc (SNOW) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. SHOP is the closer of the two: -285%, against -453% for SNOW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 15.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $38.39; the price of $147.74 is 285% above that value, and 59% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
A 3.6x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $60.85; the price of $336.59 is 453% above that value.
Leak Score 30/100 on 6 of 12 signals
| Metric | SHOP | SNOW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $147.74 | $336.59 |
| Intrinsic value | $38.39 | $60.85 |
| Margin of safety | -285% | -453% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 30/100 (6/12) |
| Market cap | $190.1B | $118.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 31.6% | 51.2% |
| Operating margin | 17.8% | -22.3% |
| Net margin | 14.5% | -20.1% |
| Return on equity | 15.5% | -48.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.01 | 1.29 |
| P/E | 99.7x | — |
| Forward P/E | 59.9x | 111.3x |
| P/B | 15.0x | 55.2x |