Saia Inc (SAIA) is overvalued and XPO Inc (XPO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. SAIA is the closer of the two: -99%, against -353% for XPO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 13.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $174.70; the price of $348.38 is 99% above that value, and 62% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 12.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $39.25; the price of $177.67 is 353% above that value, and 66% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | SAIA | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $348.38 | $177.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $174.70 | $39.25 |
| Margin of safety | -99% | -353% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 49/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $9.3B | $20.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.2% | -4.4% |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Net margin | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Return on equity | 10.8% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.10 | 2.03 |
| P/E | 33.6x | 52.2x |
| Forward P/E | 24.5x | 27.2x |
| P/B | 3.4x | 10.6x |