Saia Inc (SAIA) is overvalued and TFI International Inc (TFII) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TFII is the closer of the two: -58%, against -99% for SAIA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 13.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $174.70; the price of $348.38 is 99% above that value, and 62% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $79.24; the price of $125.04 is 58% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | SAIA | TFII |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $348.38 | $125.04 |
| Intrinsic value | $174.70 | $79.24 |
| Margin of safety | -99% | -58% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $9.3B | $10.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 12.2% | 15.8% |
| Operating margin | 10.8% | 7.1% |
| Net margin | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Return on equity | 10.8% | 12.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.10 | 1.11 |
| P/E | 33.6x | 30.7x |
| Forward P/E | 24.5x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 3.4x | 3.8x |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.3% |