Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) is overvalued and Tesla Inc (TSLA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TSLA is the closer of the two: -1287%, against -1676% for RIVN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 0.4x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $0.85; the price of $15.14 is 1676% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 7 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.2% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $27.32; the price of $378.90 is 1287% above that value.
Leak Score 48/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | RIVN | TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $15.14 | $378.90 |
| Intrinsic value | $0.85 | $27.32 |
| Margin of safety | -1676% | -1287% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (7/12) | 48/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $21.9B | $1.50T |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | — | 24.6% |
| Operating margin | -60.0% | 4.6% |
| Net margin | -54.9% | 3.7% |
| Return on equity | -57.9% | 4.6% |
| Debt to equity | 1.05 | 0.19 |
| P/E | — | 352.0x |
| Forward P/E | — | 164.6x |
| P/B | 4.0x | 17.2x |