Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) is overvalued and Toyota Motor Corp ADR (TM) is slightly undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +8%, against -1676% for RIVN.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 0.4x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $0.85; the price of $15.14 is 1676% above that value.
Leak Score 27/100 on 7 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $207.90; the price of $192.06 is 8% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | RIVN | TM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Slightly undervalued |
| Price | $15.14 | $192.06 |
| Intrinsic value | $0.85 | $207.90 |
| Margin of safety | -1676% | +8% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (7/12) | 30/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $21.9B | $227.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | — | 5.6% |
| Operating margin | -60.0% | 7.0% |
| Net margin | -54.9% | 8.6% |
| Return on equity | -57.9% | 12.1% |
| Debt to equity | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| P/E | — | 8.5x |
| Forward P/E | — | 8.7x |
| P/B | 4.0x | 1.0x |
| Dividend yield | — | 3.4% |