Rio Tinto plc ADR (RIO) is undervalued and Vale SA ADR (VALE) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, VALE trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against +37% for RIO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $153.66; the price of $97.49 is 37% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $25.51; the price of $14.19 is 44% below that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | RIO | VALE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $97.49 | $14.19 |
| Intrinsic value | $153.66 | $25.51 |
| Margin of safety | +37% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 100/100 (3/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $122.3B | $57.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.1% | -0.9% |
| Operating margin | 26.7% | 28.3% |
| Net margin | 19.6% | 4.9% |
| Return on equity | 19.5% | 5.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| P/E | 13.2x | 29.9x |
| Forward P/E | 11.8x | 7.7x |
| P/B | 2.4x | 1.6x |
| Dividend yield | 5.1% | 7.1% |