Phillips 66 (PSX) is overvalued and Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. PSX is the closer of the two: -46%, against -128% for VLO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $175.90; the price of $256.78 is 46% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.3% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.56; the price of $377.14 is 128% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 64/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | PSX | VLO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $256.78 | $377.14 |
| Intrinsic value | $175.90 | $165.56 |
| Margin of safety | -46% | -128% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 64/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $102.5B | $108.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 7.6% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 24.0% | 29.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| P/E | 14.6x | 15.6x |
| Forward P/E | 10.1x | 9.8x |
| P/B | 3.3x | 4.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 1.3% |