Phillips 66 (PSX) is overvalued and Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UGP trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +44%, against -46% for PSX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $175.90; the price of $256.78 is 46% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $13.78; the price of $7.69 is 44% below that value, and 81% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | PSX | UGP |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $256.78 | $7.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $175.90 | $13.78 |
| Margin of safety | -46% | +44% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $102.5B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.7% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Return on equity | 24.0% | 21.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65 | 1.09 |
| P/E | 14.6x | 12.7x |
| Forward P/E | 10.1x | 12.6x |
| P/B | 3.3x | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 5.2% |