Phillips 66 (PSX) is overvalued and Sunoco LP (SUN) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SUN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +21%, against -46% for PSX.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $175.90; the price of $256.78 is 46% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 60/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $92.66; the price of $73.12 is 21% below that value, and 85% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | PSX | SUN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $256.78 | $73.12 |
| Intrinsic value | $175.90 | $92.66 |
| Margin of safety | -46% | +21% |
| Leak Score | 60/100 (8/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $102.5B | $15.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| Operating margin | 5.9% | 4.9% |
| Net margin | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Return on equity | 24.0% | 14.5% |
| Debt to equity | 0.65 | 1.78 |
| P/E | 14.6x | 16.0x |
| Forward P/E | 10.1x | 8.0x |
| P/B | 3.3x | 1.5x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | 5.5% |