Philip Morris International Inc (PM) is overvalued and Universal Corp (UVV) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, UVV trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +27%, against -29% for PM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $147.10; the price of $190.23 is 29% above that value, and 82% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 50/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $59.80; the price of $43.48 is 27% below that value, and 84% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | PM | UVV |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $190.23 | $43.48 |
| Intrinsic value | $147.10 | $59.80 |
| Margin of safety | -29% | +27% |
| Leak Score | 50/100 (8/12) | 59/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $296.5B | $1.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 7.2% | 8.1% |
| Operating margin | 37.3% | 6.2% |
| Net margin | 25.6% | 0.7% |
| Return on equity | — | 1.3% |
| Debt to equity | — | 0.88 |
| P/E | 27.3x | 58.0x |
| Forward P/E | 20.8x | 11.0x |
| P/B | — | 0.8x |
| Dividend yield | 3.2% | 7.6% |