Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued and Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. PKG is the closer of the two: -23%, against -27% for SW.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $36.68; the price of $46.45 is 27% above that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | PKG | SW |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $238.23 | $46.45 |
| Intrinsic value | $194.36 | $36.68 |
| Margin of safety | -23% | -27% |
| Leak Score | 38/100 (10/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $21.2B | $24.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 26.2% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 5.8% |
| Net margin | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| Return on equity | 14.8% | 2.7% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| P/E | 31.0x | 49.4x |
| Forward P/E | 17.6x | 13.3x |
| P/B | 4.5x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 2.2% | 4.0% |