Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) is overvalued and Sonoco Products Co (SON) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, SON trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +48%, against -23% for PKG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 9.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $194.36; the price of $238.23 is 23% above that value, and 76% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 38/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $97.75; the price of $50.69 is 48% below that value, and 85% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 86/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | PKG | SON |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $238.23 | $50.69 |
| Intrinsic value | $194.36 | $97.75 |
| Margin of safety | -23% | +48% |
| Leak Score | 38/100 (10/12) | 86/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $21.2B | $5.0B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | 7.2% | 8.7% |
| Return on equity | 14.8% | 18.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| P/E | 31.0x | 7.8x |
| Forward P/E | 17.6x | 8.0x |
| P/B | 4.5x | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield | 2.2% | 4.2% |