Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG) is fairly valued and Valvoline Inc (VVV) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, PAG trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +0%, against -172% for VVV.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 7.9% (average of 2 methods) values the shares at $210.83; the price of $209.86 sits right on that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 30/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $10.54; the price of $28.67 is 172% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | PAG | VVV |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Fairly valued | Overvalued |
| Price | $209.86 | $28.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $210.83 | $10.54 |
| Margin of safety | +0% | -172% |
| Leak Score | 30/100 (3/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $13.8B | $3.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 9.2% | -6.2% |
| Operating margin | 3.4% | 17.7% |
| Net margin | 2.8% | 5.2% |
| Return on equity | 15.6% | 28.4% |
| Debt to equity | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| P/E | 15.4x | 36.3x |
| Forward P/E | 14.5x | 14.4x |
| P/B | 2.4x | 8.8x |
| Dividend yield | 2.0% | — |