Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) is overvalued and XPO Inc (XPO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. ODFL is the closer of the two: -154%, against -353% for XPO.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.90; the price of $177.31 is 154% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 12.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $39.25; the price of $177.67 is 353% above that value, and 66% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 49/100 on 9 of 12 signals
| Metric | ODFL | XPO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $177.31 | $177.67 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.90 | $39.25 |
| Margin of safety | -154% | -353% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (9/12) | 49/100 (9/12) |
| Market cap | $36.8B | $20.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.5% | -4.4% |
| Operating margin | 26.0% | 9.8% |
| Net margin | 19.4% | 4.7% |
| Return on equity | 24.8% | 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 | 2.03 |
| P/E | 34.1x | 52.2x |
| Forward P/E | 26.7x | 27.2x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 10.6x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | — |