Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) is overvalued and TFI International Inc (TFII) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. TFII is the closer of the two: -58%, against -154% for ODFL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.90; the price of $177.31 is 154% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.6% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $79.24; the price of $125.04 is 58% above that value, and 72% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 14/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ODFL | TFII |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $177.31 | $125.04 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.90 | $79.24 |
| Margin of safety | -154% | -58% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (9/12) | 14/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $36.8B | $10.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.5% | 15.8% |
| Operating margin | 26.0% | 7.1% |
| Net margin | 19.4% | 4.1% |
| Return on equity | 24.8% | 12.4% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| P/E | 34.1x | 30.7x |
| Forward P/E | 26.7x | 15.8x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 3.8x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | 1.3% |