Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) is overvalued and Saia Inc (SAIA) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. SAIA is the closer of the two: -99%, against -154% for ODFL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.90; the price of $177.31 is 154% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 13.9% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $174.70; the price of $348.38 is 99% above that value, and 62% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ODFL | SAIA |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $177.31 | $348.38 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.90 | $174.70 |
| Margin of safety | -154% | -99% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (9/12) | 27/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $36.8B | $9.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.5% | 12.2% |
| Operating margin | 26.0% | 10.8% |
| Net margin | 19.4% | 8.2% |
| Return on equity | 24.8% | 10.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| P/E | 34.1x | 33.6x |
| Forward P/E | 26.7x | 24.5x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 3.4x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | — |