Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) is overvalued and RXO Inc (RXO) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, RXO trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +62%, against -154% for ODFL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.7% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $69.90; the price of $177.31 is 154% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 59/100 on 9 of 12 signals
A 1.5x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $52.21; the price of $19.79 is 62% below that value.
Leak Score 56/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | ODFL | RXO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $177.31 | $19.79 |
| Intrinsic value | $69.90 | $52.21 |
| Margin of safety | -154% | +62% |
| Leak Score | 59/100 (9/12) | 56/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $36.8B | $3.3B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 6.5% | 11.3% |
| Operating margin | 26.0% | -0.2% |
| Net margin | 19.4% | -1.7% |
| Return on equity | 24.8% | -6.8% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| P/E | 34.1x | — |
| Forward P/E | 26.7x | 32.2x |
| P/B | 8.1x | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | — |