Natera Inc (NTRA) is overvalued and Waters Corp (WAT) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. WAT is the closer of the two: -235%, against -573% for NTRA.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
A 2.7x revenue multiple, discounted for its losses, values the shares at $58.09; the price of $390.90 is 573% above that value.
Leak Score 42/100 on 8 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $127.06; the price of $425.74 is 235% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 45/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | NTRA | WAT |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $390.90 | $425.74 |
| Intrinsic value | $58.09 | $127.06 |
| Margin of safety | -573% | -235% |
| Leak Score | 42/100 (8/12) | 45/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $56.3B | $41.8B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 42.6% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | -10.6% | 11.8% |
| Net margin | -7.1% | 3.6% |
| Return on equity | -12.5% | 1.9% |
| Debt to equity | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| P/E | — | 106.3x |
| Forward P/E | — | 25.8x |
| P/B | 30.8x | 2.8x |