Nutrien Ltd (NTR) is slightly undervalued and Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is overvalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, NTR trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +10%, against -82% for SMG.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.0% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.76; the price of $75.43 is 10% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 27/100 on 3 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 9.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.88; the price of $52.68 is 82% above that value, and 73% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 0/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | NTR | SMG |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Slightly undervalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $75.43 | $52.68 |
| Intrinsic value | $83.76 | $28.88 |
| Margin of safety | +10% | -82% |
| Leak Score | 27/100 (3/12) | 0/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $36.0B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 5.2% | -3.8% |
| Operating margin | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | 8.4% | 2.2% |
| Return on equity | 9.3% | — |
| Debt to equity | 0.49 | — |
| P/E | 15.3x | 46.1x |
| Forward P/E | 15.2x | 10.9x |
| P/B | 1.4x | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.9% | 5.1% |